Who Should the Leafs Protect in the Expansion Draft? (part one)

 Simon B

This is a two-part article. Stay tuned for part two tomorrow.

The Seattle Kraken is the NHL 32d club and they will hit the ice when the season begins in the fall of 2021. They're going to be the 9th team in the Pacific division which makes this division the largest in the NHL (Atlantic and Metro have 8 and the Central have 7). 

Obviously, this means there will be an expansion draft so that the Kraken can have players under contract when the season begins. 

The way the expansion draft works is that the Kraken will be picking one unprotected player from each NHL franchise (except Vegas) to make up their roster they must have a minimum of 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and, 3 goalies. 

What is an unprotected player? It's pretty simple. Each team is allowed to protect either 7 forwards, 3 defensemen ad 1 goalie, or 8 skaters and a goalie. Once the teams protect players, the Kraken can't pick them but if you're not protected, Seattle can pick you.

That being said, who should the Leafs protect ahead of the upcoming draft?

Forwards

According to CapFriendly, the Maple Leafs currently have 10 forwards under contract. The guys they protect all depend on if they do the 7 and 3 scenario or the 8 skaters total scenario. 

Taking a look at the Leaf's roster, the thing that jumps out at you right away is that they're a top-heavy team. This means that their weakness is on the defensive end of the ice. If you take that into account, the best option for the Leafs is to do the 8 skaters option. Why? Because this would allow them to protect their big four upfront (Tavares, Matthews, Marner, and Nylander) and a fourth defenseman as well. 

In taking this strategy the Leafs will risk losing a guy like Alex Kerfoot or Ilya Mikheyev but it will allow them to protect one of either Justin Holl to Travis Dermott who showed to be valuable members of the back end throughout the regular season.

Forwards: As I mentioned, they're going to protect the big four of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. If they want to protect a fourth defenseman that's all the forwards they can protect. So who's left out?

Well, you may be thinking to yourself "what about Jason Spezza and Wayne Simmonds who the Leafs just resigned?" I thought the same thing at first but then I thought about it and both of those players are nearing the end of their careers and don't really provide much in terms of offensive ability. The reason they're still on the Leafs is for their leadership and experience in the playoffs. Those criteria are not exactly what expansion teams need as their goals aren't to win the cup the first year they're in the league. So I don't think they need to worry about Spezza or Simmonds getting taken.

This would mean that if the Kraken take a forward from Toronto, they'd have to choose from Pierre Engvall, Alex Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev and, Adam Brooks. If I'm the Kraken here, I would pick Kerfoot simply on the basis that he would be the most useful player to an expansion team. He can play the wing and he can be a second or third-line center and he's pretty consistent in the faceoff circle as well. 

Mikheyev is fast but he can't finish so that means that he still needs to be developed and I don't think that the Kraken wants to spend time developing a player at the NHL level. Engvall is simply inconsistent. He will be on fire for a few weeks (like what we saw at the end of this regular season) but then be a mediocre fourth liner at best for the next month or two. I can't see the Kraken interested in that either. Lastly, there's Adam Brooks. He's a great fit in Toronto and he's a guy who's been developed by the team too. He doesn't have a lot of NHL experience and no one is really sure what he is exactly. He's been a good 4th line center but the sample size is just too small for the Kraken to assume he will continue on the same trajectory. 

The Wrap

This was only part one. In part two I will talk about the defensive end of things and that's where there starts to be a lot of debates and discussions about who should go where and why. I will have this post up by tomorrow. I don't think the Kraken will be taking a Leafs forward so this next post will be a lot more significant I think.

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Thanks for reading!