Who should the Leafs protect in the expansion Draft? (part 2)

 Simon B

This is the second part of a two-part post. Check out the previous article for part one. 

As I was wrapping up my previous post, I mentioned that things are pointing in the direction that the Seattle Kraken will be picking a defenseman from the Toronto Maple Leafs in the expansion draft on the 21st of July. I went over the forward options and none of them seemed to fit the criteria for an expansion team other than Alex Kerfoot. 

If I'm Seattle, I would definitely look at defensive options on the Leafs because that's where you get the most value. 

Saying that Toronto has some pretty important decisions to make on their end as well. Who do you protect? Which player will bring the most value to the club? Do you sacrifice long-term or short-term success? These are all questions that Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan need to think about before publishing their list of protected players.

The Leafs have 6 defensemen under contract for the 2021-2022 season. Two days ago they signed Travis Dermott to a two-year deal worth 1.5 million per. This made a lot of people wonder if this was a hint at Dermott being the fourth defensemen they protect if they do the 8 skaters strategy (which I already explained in my previous post).

Defensemen: Just like the forwards, there are locks to be protected on the defensive end too. Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and TJ Brodie are all 99.9% sure to be on the protected list unless the Leafs make an unexpected trade in the next couple of days. 

If you take away those three players, the only other defensemen that the Leafs have under contract are Travis Dermott, Justin Holl, and Rasmus Sandin. 

Sandin is on an entry-level contract and is still a really young player in development. As I mentioned though, the Kraken is probably not looking to develop players at the NHL level and that's where Sandin is at in his career. 

Now we get to the big debate: Dermott or Holl? If you compare the way these two players play they are both very different from each other. Dermott is more of an offensive defenseman who has the skill and is not afraid to carry the puck. If you want to compare him to another Leaf, he'd be more on the Morgan Rielly end of the defensemen specter. Justin Holl is more of a stay-at-home defenseman. He'll hang back and let his partner jump into the rush and he has a tendency not to pinch in the offensive zone (and when he does, it doesn't usually end well). If you wanted to compare him to another Leaf he'd be more of a Jake Muzzin type of player. 

This begs the question, who should they keep and who should they risk losing. For the Kraken, the best option from the Leaf's lineup would be to pick one of these two guys because they are young, reliable and they have a very low cap hit. 

Dermott is turning 25 at the end of 2021 whereas Holl will be 30. Dermott just resigned as a Leaf two days ago too. Those two factors alone seem to mean that the best option for the Leafs would be to keep Dermott and I agree. Dermott has played with many different partners over the few years he's been in the league and he's been able to play well with everyone. Holl on the other hand struggled for the first few years of his Leaf tenure and only really broke out this season when he played with Jake Muzzin. Does this mean that Holl is incapable of playing with anyone else? No, but we can't be sure that he can either.

Taking that into account, I think the best option here would be to let Holl go and keep Dermott. After all, the team likes him, he's a local boy who was brought up in the organization and they just inked him to a new deal. That last point especially makes me think that Kyle Dubas and company are going to protect him.

The Wrap

Well, the expansion draft is soon and we'll find out if anything I predicted is true or if I'm way off here. But this is probably a minor change to what Dubas will have in store for us this offseason. The way the team chocked once again in the playoffs means that a major trade is in order. All we need to do now is wait and see what it may be.

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Thanks for reading!